Report warns that new class size caps could exacerbate teacher turnover at high-poverty schools

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New findings suggest that New York City’s most impoverished schools may face a potential teacher exodus in the near future, spurred by the implementation of a comprehensive class size mandate, as per a recent report.

In a bid to adhere to a new state law, all public schools in the city must cap their class sizes between 20 and 25 students by 2028, varying by grade level. However, wealthier schools typically have more crowded classrooms, necessitating a surge in teacher recruitment.

A substantial portion of these new hires is projected to consist of novices or educators from outside the city. Nevertheless, a considerable number is expected to be sourced from existing city schools, with a disproportionate number likely poached from higher-poverty institutions, according to an analysis unveiled on Thursday by the Urban Institute, a D.C.-based think tank.

“Our analysis indicates that hiring for class size requirements may result in approximately three additional K–5 vacancies at the most impoverished schools for each additional position created at the least impoverished schools,” stated Matthew Chingos, Ariella Meltzer, and Jay Carter, researchers at the Urban Institute.

The latest study sheds light on a significant equity implication of the new legislation: Higher-poverty schools, already grappling with heightened teacher turnover rates, might witness a further drain in their educators as principals strive to fill teaching positions for smaller classes citywide.

Moreover, the report raises concerns about the potential introduction of new policies by city officials to alleviate the anticipated turnover or address ongoing recruitment obstacles at schools serving more economically disadvantaged students.

“The turnover resulting from this extensive hiring process could be disruptive,” noted Chingos. “Teachers play a crucial role in school communities, and losing them incurs a cost.”

Although the report does not directly assess the impact of the class size law on teacher quality at high-need schools, a prior study centered on New York City revealed that superior teachers were more inclined to transfer from lower-performing to higher-performing schools.

Advocates of the new class size limitations cite research demonstrating that students perform better in smaller classes, particularly those from low-income backgrounds, who constitute the majority of the city’s public school attendees. Reducing class sizes is widely favored by many educators and parents and stands as a key imperative for the United Federation of Teachers.

Nevertheless, implementing reduced class sizes across the largest school system in the nation poses a monumental challenge. City officials estimate a requirement of hiring 10,000 to 12,000 additional educators—16% above current levels—at an annual cost of $1.3 billion to $1.9 billion. The construction of new classroom facilities entails an even heftier price tag, reaching up to $27 billion. Most of this funding remains unallocated, as reported by the city comptroller.

Officials may seek exemptions to the law, transfer students from overcrowded to underutilized schools, or cap enrollments to mitigate costs. However, each solution presents potential controversies.

On a broader scale, allocating additional resources to reduce class sizes will not uniformly benefit all schools. A previous analysis revealed that schools with higher needs are poised to gain the least from the new class size restrictions, given their existing tendency toward smaller classes.

Chingos and fellow researchers utilized recent trends to forecast the likely implications of the class size law on teacher recruitment. Over the past years, approximately one-third of teachers hired in the city’s public schools originated from other schools within the system.

Upon full enforcement of the class size regulations, the highest-poverty quartile of K-5 schools will need to recruit 1,024 teachers to accommodate smaller classes but could potentially lose 762 teachers who are lured away during the hiring process, as per the Urban Institute study.

Conversely, at the city’s most affluent quartile of schools, where poverty rates among students range from 5% to 63%, an additional 1,956 teachers will be necessary to reduce class sizes, with an expected loss of only 292 teachers to other campuses. (Similar trends are observed in middle and high schools.)

Clarifying that the analysis serves as a “rough simulation” rather than a definitive prediction, Chingos emphasized that it assumes a consistent hiring pattern. The Urban Institute report received backing from the Gates Foundation, Walton Family Foundation, and Robin Hood Foundation. (receives funding from the Gates and Walton foundations.)

In response to the class size law, the Education Department has detailed initiatives to bolster teacher recruitment, including a policy granting priority to certain schools with higher needs in hiring teachers and offering a $1,000 incentive to early commitments from educators.

In a statement, Education Department spokesperson Jenna Lyle remarked, “The concerns raised by this report align with the issues acknowledged by and reported to New York City Public Schools. Our class size strategy for the upcoming year encompasses various policies aimed at mitigating potential impacts, including increased support and recruitment resources for schools facing recruitment challenges and an expansion of our teacher recruitment pool.”

Nonetheless, the report argues that the majority of the city’s proposals primarily focus on expanding the teacher pipeline at large, rather than addressing the underlying causes of the issue, such as enhancing teacher salaries in harder-to-staff schools or reducing racial and economic segregation.

In contrast, the city’s teachers union did not express apprehension regarding the potential impact of the class size law on recruitment at higher-need schools.

“Based on the UFT’s internal assessment of schools in economically disadvantaged areas with available space, hundreds of thousands of underprivileged students in NYC stand to gain from reduced class sizes,” stated UFT spokesperson Alison Gender in an email. “Safeguards to protect high-poverty schools are already embedded in the law and in the class size reduction plan—precautions acknowledged by the report itself.”