As the Republican National Convention concludes, the education commentariat is misconstruing the implications of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 and the GOP platform in anticipation of a potential second Trump administration. Despite the progressive leanings in education and the tendency to oversimplify Republican stances, the current betting odds favor Trump’s return to the White House.

More analysis on this subject will be forthcoming in the coming months, but here are my initial thoughts post-GOP Convention.

Analysis of the current education discourse overlooks the stark divide between the New Right and Reagan-Buckley conservatives, with the New Right NatCons seemingly prevailing decisively. Discussions around Project 2025 and a prospective Trump agenda often center on deregulation and small government conservatism, themes more aligned with previous GOP figures like Haley or Pence. However, the current Trump-led GOP signifies a departure from such traditional conservatism, as highlighted by the choice of J.D. Vance as Trump’s successor, signaling a shift in the party’s direction.

The new Republican platform departs significantly from conventional conservative ideals, opting for a more interventionist approach. Education policies outlined include greater federal involvement in public schools, signaling a departure from past fiscal conservatism. Expectations of a Trump-Vance administration adhering to traditional Republican principles are questionable, with a greater emphasis likely on parental rights and school choice initiatives.

Anticipating a second term under Trump, the composition of his administration may deviate from the past, with a shift towards a more activist agenda. The departure of Betsy DeVos and her team post-January 6th could signal a push towards a more hard-line approach focused on key conservative issues.

Reflecting on past strategies, the current discourse around Trump’s policies emphasizes the need to take his rhetoric seriously rather than literally. The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, while commendable in its education recommendations, may not align closely with a future Trump administration’s actions. Trump’s policy positions are fluid, and his commitment to specific proposals is subject to change, with a strong focus on maintaining his image and political power.

Projections for a second Trump administration should be approached with caution, as the appointment of Vance and the evolving nature of the GOP platform indicate a departure from prior expectations. The future direction under a potential Trump II remains uncertain amidst shifting political dynamics.

Frederick Hess serves as the executive editor of Education Next and runs the blog “Old School with Rick Hess.”