Economists predict Florida schools won’t reach pre-pandemic enrollment levels for 10 years.

In the upcoming years, Florida schools are expected to face a decline in enrollment for five out of the next six years, with a minimal increase of less than 0.1% predicted for the one positive year.

According to the state’s Office of Economic and Demographic Research, the student enrollment forecast indicates a decrease of 12,379 students in traditional public schools for the 2024-2025 academic year, resulting in a 0.5% drop from 2.366 million to 2.354 million.

It’s worth noting that these numbers exclude students who receive scholarships to attend nonpublic schools, home-based students, those in the juvenile justice system, and other similar groups.

The upcoming school year marks the fifth full academic year post the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Following a 6.1% decrease in student enrollment during the first year of the pandemic in 2020-2021, enrollment has since shown a rise of 2.6% in 2021-2022 and 1.4% in 2022-2023.

Elisabeth Goodman, a forecaster, mentioned that the recent school year’s enrollment reflects a stabilization post the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The return of some students to districts has been observed; however, it is anticipated that this number will not reach pre-pandemic levels within the next decade, as per the forecast.

State analysts at the Education Estimating Conference anticipate an annual increase in enrollment by tenths of 1% from 2030 to 2035, as per the latest projections. Looking ahead to 2034-2035, a forecast predicts nearly 100,000 fewer students compared to pre-pandemic levels.

During this period, Florida’s population has surged from 21.5 million in 2020 to 23 million in 2024 and is anticipated to reach 25.7 million by 2034, significantly surpassing pre-pandemic figures.

Recent years have witnessed a higher rate of students opting for private and charter schools, driven by school choice programs implemented by the state Legislature and the governor. These programs offer taxpayer-funded scholarships that cover tuition and other educational expenses for students attending private schools or being homeschooled.